FZUS81 KCLE 030942 ICEFBO GREAT LAKES FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 442 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2011 ...ICE FORMATION EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND DECEMBER 10TH... THIN ICE IS EXPECTED TO START DEVELOPING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS COLDER AIR INFILTRATES THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE KEY WATERWAYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HAMPERED BY SIGNIFICANT ICE FORMATION AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE WATER TEMPERATURES STILL HOVERING IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. THE COMBINATION OF STORM SYSTEMS AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL HELP TO CHILL THE WATER OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL REDUCE THE WATER TEMPERATURES TO NEAR FREEZING ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE DEVELOPMENT. DULUTH HARBOR AND PORTIONS OF SAGINAW BAY APPEAR THAT THEY WILL BE THE FIRST AREAS TO SEE SOME LIGHT ICE DEVELOPMENT BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE FREEZE-UP OF KEY WATERWAYS STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET FROM PREVIOUS PROJECTIONS. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE OF FORECAST TEMPERATURES INDICATES THERE WILL BE A TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE COMBINATION OF COLDER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE WATER TEMPERATURES TO DROP FAIRLY RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER 2011 AVERAGED 4.0 TO 4.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS HELPED TO KEEP WATER TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING DURING THE STORMY PERIODS. THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM DID NOT TAKE ON ITS TYPICAL FALL TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA. NORMALLY...STORM SYSTEMS WOULD ORIGINATE IN THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS PAST MONTH...STORMS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION FROM ALL DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. SOME MOVED UP THE EAST COAST WHILE OTHERS HAD A WEST TO EAST TRAJECTORY. TOWARD THE END OF NOVEMBER...THE STORM SYSTEMS STARTED TO TREND TOWARD THE NORMAL PATH. THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE LAST MONTH WAS RATHER CHAOTIC WITH A COUPLE COLD PERIODS MIXED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS OF DECEMBER 2ND...THE ONLY ICE PRESENT ON THE GREAT LAKES WAS ON THE EXTREME NORTHERN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE GREAT LAKES REMAINED ICE FREE. THE LONG RANGE COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE CHAOTIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT AFFECTED THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF NOVEMBER WILL CONTINUE. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF COLD PERIODS WHERE TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW NORMAL BUT THEN QUICKLY RECOVER THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE 30 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...OR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE LAKES AND EQUAL CHANCES ELSEWHERE. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO LA NINA NOT EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG ONE LIKE LAST WINTER. PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 30 DAYS HAS EQUAL CHANCES OF BEING ABOVE...BELOW...OR NEAR NORMAL. THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES. FREEZING DEGREE DAYS ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL IN THE NORTHWEST AND NEAR NORMAL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HENCE...THE PREDOMINANT LATER ICE FORMATION THAT IS EXPECTED FOR THE GREAT LAKES. FREEZING DEGREE DAY ACCUMULATIONS AT SELECTED STATIONS COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR TODAY: LOCATION 2011 NORM LOCATION 2011 NORM ------------------------------ ------------------------------ DULUTH, MN 53 119 MUSKEGON, MI 0 0 MARQUETTE, MI 30 34 ALPENA, MI 0 10 SAULT STE MARIE, MI 1 40 DETROIT, MI 0 0 GREEN BAY, WI 2 28 TOLEDO, OH 0 0 MILWAUKEE, WI 0 4 CLEVELAND, OH 0 0 CHICAGO, IL 0 0 BUFFALO, NY 0 0 SOME PRELIMINARY DATES FOR FREEZE-UP FOR SELECTED WATERWAYS: WATERWAY FREEZE-UP FOR 2011 EARLIEST LATEST DULUTH AROUND DECEMBER 10 11/26/96 12/20/74 LITTLE BAY DE NOC AROUND DECEMBER 25 12/11/72 1/10/92 SAGINAW BAY AROUND DECEMBER 20 12/03/76 1/10/75 LAKE ST. CLAIR AROUND DECEMBER 30 12/17/68 1/18/92 ST. MARY'S RIVER SAULT STE MARIE AROUND JANUARY 3 12/06/76 1/20/75 IZAAK WALTON BAY AROUND JANUARY 6 12/11/76 1/15/71 LAKE MUNUSCONG AROUND DECEMBER 23 11/19/67 1/13/75 RABER BAY AROUND DECEMBER 20 11/26/76 1/14/75 FRENCHETTE POINT AROUND JANUARY 16 12/13/76 1/25/80 THE FORECAST DATES FOR FREEZE-UP IN THE NORTHWEST ARE SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN NORMAL AND THE REST OF THE LAKES ARE SLIGHTLY LATER FOR PROJECTIONS AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. $$ LOMBARDY